International Freight Market Update - August 2025

August 26, 2025

International Freight Market Update 

Recent trade developments are placing growing pressure on shippers, especially those importing into the U.S. This month, the industry faced a complex mix of high-volume import surges, overcapacity in ocean freight, and deteriorating rates across modes like truckload, LTL, and intermodal. Container imports spiked in July due to tariff-driven frontloading, but forecasts now point to a sharp decline in volumes through year-end, especially from China, as retailers adjust to early stockpiling and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, despite short-term volume strength, ocean and truckload carriers continue their underpricing pressure as global overcapacity, fragile demand, and unstable geopolitical conditions keep markets volatile.

August also saw the deployment of newly expanded tariffs under Sections 232 and 301, including a 50% duty on certain copper, steel, and aluminum products. These changes eliminated de minimis exemptions, tightened reporting standards, and increased both compliance risks and landed costs. With no duty drawback and limited exemptions, importers face sourcing complexity and financial exposure. The policy environment remains highly fluid, with tariff pauses and bilateral agreements adding further complexity. Ultimately, proactive trade compliance and inventory planning are essential for mitigating disruptions in the months ahead.

International Air Freight News

• Global air cargo demand grew slightly (+0.8% YoY) with Asia-Pacific remaining the key driver with +8.3% growth. Meanwhile, North American carriers saw a steep -6.1% drop, dragged down by US-China trade restrictions and Middle East-related rerouting challenges. Ultimately, the Asia–North America corridor remains particularly strained (-4.7% YoY).
• Jet fuel prices dropped -12% YoY (despite a +8.7% MoM jump), helping ease cost pressures for carriers. However, freight yields continue to soften with a -2.5% YoY rate decline, signaling margin compression despite slightly stronger monthly demand and rates.

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International Ocean Freight News

• July 2025 hit near-record import volumes (+18% MoM), driven by aggressive frontloading ahead of tariff deadlines. But this artificial demand advancement is expected to backfire as analysts forecast double-digit YoY declines from September to December. Importers may face increased pressure from rising costs as they postpone additional orders and contend with elevated inventory levels.
• Global carriers are stuck in a cycle of falling rates, weak demand, and excess tonnage despite rising costs and poor schedule reliability (just 28% in July). With an ever-growing orderbook (1/3 of fleet), modest blank sailings, and volatile US-China/EU trade policy, carriers face structural profitability challenges that won’t ease without drastic capacity cuts. 

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U.S. Domestic Ground Freight News

• Despite July’s muted freight volumes (-7% YoY), shippers are still enjoying high tender acceptance with spot rates roughly 15% below contract rates, leading to continued use of the spot market. With ample capacity, flatlining rates, and demand weakness likely pushing any real rebound into 2026, there’s limited pricing power as shippers avoid pushing carriers into further financial distress.
• LTL freight has sustained a twelve-month downturn in year-over-year demand, while efforts to convert to intermodal transport remain lackluster, hampered by prolonged transit times. This dynamic reflects how macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious approaches to inventory management are impeding meaningful modal shifts, ultimately delaying freight market recovery. 

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De Minimis Excemption Ending: Immediate Action Required

Starting August 29, 2025, the U.S. government is eliminating the de minimis exemption for most commercial imports valued under $800. This change means low-value shipments, especially those from retailers such as Shein, Temu, and other direct-from-Asia suppliers, will now be subject to duties, documentation requirements, and potential delays. Several global carriers have already paused shipments due to confusion around enforcement. This shift could significantly impact e-commerce sellers, importers, and logistics providers relying on fast, low-cost parcel delivery.

Need help navigating the change? Contact our Global Trade Compliance Team to review your product classifications, update shipping procedures, and ensure you’re fully compliant before the deadline hits.

Don’t wait—early preparation is key to avoiding disruptions.

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