September 23, 2025
Global Freight Market Update
In September, planning and pricing were the main topics, as shippers prepared for tightening transport capacity ahead of Golden Week. The lead-up to the holiday spurred a rush of shipments out of China, driving up freight rates and straining available space, especially on major ocean and air routes. This was worsened further by a surge in blank sailings, pushing carrier capacity utilization to 13–17% on key lanes and dropping schedule reliability on Asia-Europe trades to historic lows.
Despite a modest rise in August import volumes, particularly from Southeast Asia and India, the broader freight landscape remained subdued, with domestic shipments down 9% year-over-year and expenditures dipping slightly. Shippers benefited from falling jet fuel prices and stable or declining truckload and intermodal rates, but weakening global manufacturing and persistent overcapacity kept rate recovery elusive. Exporters faced similar pressures, navigating complex regulatory controls and the risk of heavy penalties for non-compliance. As carriers redeployed fleets to adapt to new U.S. surcharges and shippers diversified sourcing away from China, strategic planning and proactive compliance remained essential to mitigating ongoing cost, capacity, and regulatory risks throughout the remainder of 2025.
International Air Freight News
- Global air cargo demand jumped +5.5% YoY in July, led by Asia-Pacific (+11.1% YoY) and supported by cross-border e-commerce; North America posted a modest +0.7% rebound after previous contractions.
- Jet fuel prices fell -9.1% YoY (up +4.3% MoM), providing ongoing cost relief for carriers, but cargo yields weakened by -2.0% YoY, reflecting margin pressure despite overall volume growth.
- Trade momentum slowed: World trade expanded +3.1% YoY in June but dipped MoM, while global manufacturing PMIs fell below 50, signaling softening export sentiment and continued tariff uncertainty.
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International Ocean Freight News
- August's import volumes rose modestly (+1.6% YoY), with robust growth from Southeast Asia and India offsetting sharp declines from China and other major markets. However, spot rates and carrier capacity utilization are weakening amid increased holiday season blank sailings and continued demand diversification away from China.
- Carriers aggressively blanked sailings across major lanes (including Asia–North America and Asia–Europe) ahead of Golden Week, raising blanked capacity percentages to 13–17%. The market remains soft, with spot rates slipping and schedule reliability on Asia-Europe trades hitting historic lows (as low as 16–17%).
- Fleet redeployment is underway as ocean carriers move to avoid new U.S. surcharges on Chinese-built vessels, accelerating fleet reshuffles and further complicating capacity management. Global carriers continue to struggle with overcapacity, rate volatility, and weak demand into Q4 2025.
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U.S. Domestic Ground Freight News
- Industry analysts report continued cost savings for shippers in 2025, with truckload (TL) and intermodal rates holding flat or declining. However, looking ahead to 2026, contract rates may edge up by 2-3% as shippers invest in more trailers and brokerage solutions.
- August saw mixed performance in the less-than-truckload (LTL) segment: most carriers reported year-over-year volume declines, while ArcBest recorded a 2% increase. Spot rates ticked up slightly across dry van, reefer, and flatbed, outperforming seasonal trends and last year’s levels.
- The broader freight market remains subdued, with total domestic shipments down 9% YoY in August and expenditures dipping 0.4% YoY.Despite stable contract freight and high tender acceptance, carriers and shippers are navigating excess capacity, slow recovery, and rising inventory costs, as reflected in a still-expansionary Logistics Manager’s Index.
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China’s Golden Week: Immediate Action Required
During China’s Golden Week (Oct 1–7), factories will shut down and shippers will experience slow ports/trucking, triggering a pre-holiday rush that tightens capacity, lifts ocean/air rates, and raises rollover and surcharge risk. It is also typical for carriers to have blank sailings during and after the holiday, keeping space tight even as operations resume. To stay on schedule, book ahead, share forecasts and priority POs, pre-clear/pay to avoid storage, and stay flexible on ports, routings, and services. Utilize air freight as the contingency for true emergencies. Most importantly, you are not alone. Your Crane Worldwide Logistics team is here to support you!
Don’t wait—early preparation is key to avoiding disruptions.
Air Freight Gateway Spotlight: Miami & London
Did you know Crane Worldwide just launched two key Air Freight gateways to keep your freight moving with faster transit, reliable capacity, and cost-efficient access?
- Miami (MIA) to South America: all U.S. origins consolidate via MIA with direct service to Bogotá and Campinas with 3x weekly consolidations.
- London (LHR) to The Americas, Middle East & Asia: centralized operations in London serving Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, Newark, Singapore, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Santiago 3x weekly.
Both gateway options provide guaranteed capacity, competitive rates, and consistent departures with an expertise you can trust. Contact a Crane Worldwide representative to reserve space.
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