Middle East Operations Update: Current Service Status

Petroline RecoveryRestart Confirmed, Capacity Still Recovering

The East‑West Pipeline has now restarted, representing the first fully verified infrastructure recovery of the conflict. The key question is no longer whether the pipeline returns, but whether it reaches full operating capacity within the approximately six‑week recovery window currently anticipated. Yanbu export volumes and terminal stock levels remain the most important indicators to monitor during this process.

US–Iran Diplomatic TrackNo Replacement Framework

The June ceasefire framework has expired and no successor agreement has emerged. Attention now turns to whether Washington responds to Iran’s UN proposal with a counteroffer or continues its current posture through the US midterm election period. The absence of a functioning diplomatic framework remains a major obstacle to any broader maritime recovery.

Hormuz Transit RecoveryImprovement Under Pressure

Hormuz traffic has improved modestly from conflict lows but remains significantly below pre‑war norms. A key watchpoint is whether recent gains can be sustained now that Petroline is easing pressure on Saudi export logistics, or whether transit levels remain structurally constrained regardless of pipeline recovery. Any expansion of transit permissions beyond currently approved movements would be an important signal.

Bab el‑MandebTerritorial Control & Future Route Viability

Reports that Houthi forces control Perim Island and Yemen’s Red Sea coastline continue to raise concerns over the long‑term viability of Bab el‑Mandeb as a fallback corridor. Monitoring remains focused on whether Yemeni government forces can regain additional territory and whether control of strategic maritime approaches changes over the coming weeks.

Energy MarketsBrent Remains Elevated

Brent continues to trade in the high‑USD 90s to low‑USD 100s, reflecting ongoing concerns over both Gulf and Red Sea security. Market pricing remains sensitive to shipping disruption, sanctions risk and infrastructure outages. Any sustained move higher would reinforce current surcharge assumptions, while a prolonged stabilization period could support future review.

Hormuz SecurityCompeting Narratives Persist

Public disagreement between Washington and Tehran over control and access in the Strait continues. Both sides maintain competing operational claims regarding transit security and future routing arrangements. Monitoring remains focused on whether these claims translate into new military activity or further restrictions on commercial movements.

Port & Gateway NetworkJeddah Remains Under Pressure

Jeddah continues to operate as the primary GCC contingency gateway and remains under significant congestion pressure. While Petroline’s restart is positive for Saudi exports, it does not materially improve port performance in the short term. Network recovery remains dependent on sustained shipping flows through both Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Insurance & Commercial ConfidenceNo Re‑Engagement Yet

No major P&I club has returned Gulf war‑risk cover. Despite the positive pipeline development, insurer confidence remains limited by continued military activity, unresolved maritime disputes and elevated regional risk. Insurer re‑engagement remains one of the clearest indicators of genuine recovery.

Logistics OutlookInfrastructure Improves, Maritime Risk Remains

The network is no longer moving uniformly in one direction. Petroline’s restart represents real and independently verified progress, while Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb remain constrained by security, diplomatic and insurance challenges. CWW therefore continues to maintain Tension Critical, with all contingency routing, continuity measures and risk controls remaining fully in force.

Petroline RestartConfirmation Still Outstanding

The most immediate operational watchpoint remains the East‑West Pipeline (Petroline). Despite repeated indications from US officials that capacity restoration was imminent, no confirmed restart statement has yet been issued by either Saudi Aramco or the Saudi Ministry of Energy. The key question is whether operations resume within the timelines previously suggested or whether recovery extends further into Q4.

Iraq InvestigationPotential Repair Bottleneck

Attention remains focused on Iraq’s investigation into militia activity in Maysan Province, where the drones linked to the pipeline attack reportedly originated. Any delay in access for repair and certification teams could extend the Petroline outage and further complicate Saudi export recovery. Resolution of this issue remains critical to restoring confidence in alternative Gulf export routes.

Bab el-MandebReported Houthi Gains Under Review

Reports that Houthi forces have captured both Mocha and Perim Island remain under close observation. Independent confirmation and assessment of the situation are critical because control of Perim Island would have significant implications for future Bab el‑Mandeb routing and regional maritime security planning. The impact on fallback routing options remains a key concern.

Hormuz TrafficSaudi Volumes Under Escort

Saudi Arabia is reportedly increasing use of Hormuz under US naval escort to offset capacity lost through Petroline. The key watchpoint is whether these movements continue without incident or draw a direct response from Iran. Any disruption to escorted flows would have immediate consequences for regional energy exports and commercial shipping confidence.

Energy MarketsBrent Approaching Critical Levels

Brent remains elevated in the USD 104–108/bbl range and is now approaching levels not seen since the conflict’s opening phase. A sustained hold near or above USD 100 would reinforce existing surcharge assumptions and potentially increase transport costs across all modes. Monitoring remains focused on market reaction to both the Petroline outage and continuing maritime disruption.

Hormuz GovernanceCompeting Claims Persist

Public disagreement between Washington and Tehran over control, access and future operations in the Strait continues. Both sides are making competing operational claims, and the risk remains that rhetoric could translate into additional military activity. The next phase of this dispute will be a critical indicator of whether conditions stabilize or deteriorate further.

Port & Maritime NetworkPressure Intensifying

Jeddah remains under extreme pressure as the primary GCC contingency gateway, while broader maritime recovery has stalled. The combination of an offline Petroline system, constrained Hormuz traffic and Red Sea disruption has increased pressure across all alternative routes. Congestion and network imbalance remain among the most immediate operational concerns.

Insurance & Commercial ConfidenceNo Improvement

No major P&I club has re‑engaged Gulf war‑risk cover, and insurers continue to treat both Hormuz and the Red Sea as elevated‑risk environments. The absence of insurer confidence remains one of the strongest indicators that operational recovery has not yet begun, regardless of diplomatic or political statements.

Logistics OutlookDual-Front Escalation Continues

The network is now facing sustained pressure from both Hormuz and the Red Sea simultaneously. While diplomatic engagement continues, operational indicators remain negative. CWW’s assessment remains Tension Critical, and all contingency routing, continuity measures and risk controls should remain fully active until verifiable improvements emerge.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Air Remains the Most Reliable Corridor

Air continues to provide the highest degree of operational stability despite escalating pressures across both Hormuz and the Red Sea. DXB, DWC and AUH remain operational, while Emirates, Etihad and flydubai continue scheduled services. Doha remains in Open status, although Jeddah, Riyadh and Kuwait continue to operate under flight‑specific constraints. Abha remains closed with no confirmed reopening timeline during this reporting period. Air freight should remain the preferred option for all time‑sensitive cargo, with flight acceptance confirmed prior to booking.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Contingency Routing Fully Maintained

Both of Saudi Arabia’s primary bypass routes remain under pressure. Petroline remains offline more than a week after the attack, with no confirmed restart from either Saudi Aramco or the Saudi Ministry of Energy. At the same time, conditions in the Bab el‑Mandeb corridor have deteriorated following reports of Houthi control of Mocha and Perim Island, further reducing confidence in alternative routing options. Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased the use of Hormuz under US naval escort to offset lost pipeline capacity, highlighting the growing dependence on a Strait that remains heavily constrained. Jeddah continues to operate as the primary GCC contingency gateway under severe congestion. Cape routing remains the operational standard and should not be relaxed.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Stable Operations, Continued Diversions

UAE–Saudi corridors remain fully operational and continue to absorb increasing redistribution volumes as maritime disruption pushes cargo inland. Additional caution remains warranted around southern Saudi Arabia and areas linked to the East‑West Pipeline corridor. The Kuwait–Iraq corridor remains restricted, with no material change in guidance during this reporting cycle. All Sila and Batha movements should continue to be pre‑coordinated, while Kuwait–Iraq movements should remain subject to senior routing review prior to execution.