March 2026 Global Freight Market Update

The global freight markets in March 2026 reflected resilient demand across air cargo, cautious normalization in ocean contracting, and gradually tightening U.S. ground capacity amid cost volatility and uneven regional conditions.

March 2026 was defined by strong international air cargo demand, renewed momentum in trans-Pacific ocean contract negotiations, and early signs of tightening capacity in U.S. domestic trucking. Air freight volumes accelerated year over year, while ocean carriers faced regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical complexity. On the ground, contract structures shortened and spot activity increased, supported by weather-related disruptions and fuel cost pressure, but overall demand growth remained modest.

• Global air cargo demand strengthened materially in February, rising 11.2 percent year over year, with international volumes up 11.6 percent.
• Capacity expanded at a slower pace than demand, lifting load factors and supporting a year-over-year recovery in yields.
• Cargo yields increased 6.6 percent year over year, the first annual increase in eleven months, despite ongoing fuel price volatility.

• U.S. regulators denied ocean carrier requests to accelerate war-related surcharges, reinforcing requirements for cost transparency and advance notice.
• Trans-Pacific contract negotiations regained momentum after large shippers finalized agreements, providing a reference point for broader market activity.
• While fuel-related disruption remains a near-term challenge, excess capacity and uneven demand continue to limit carriers’ ability to fully pass through higher costs.

• Truckload carriers increasingly favored shorter contract durations, reflecting cautious optimism and optionality for later in the year.
• Spot market activity increased due to capacity constraints rather than underlying volume growth, while contract rates showed modest year-over-year improvement.
• February shipments rebounded month over month following weather disruptions, even as year-over-year volumes remained lower across domestic modes.

• IEEPA Duties: CBP has provided a court‑ordered update on its phased rollout of the CAPE system to process refunds of IEEPA duties, confirming progress on the claim portal, liquidation/reliquidation workflows, and electronic refunds, with Phase 1 focused on unliquidated and recently liquidated entries, while other entry types will be addressed later. [Read more]
• Middle East Update: Regional conditions continue to worsen as oil supply losses accelerate, energy prices surge, and security incidents elevate risk across key Gulf ports, while air, sea, and land freight disruptions are now actively constraining capacity and driving higher costs. [Read more]

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