Middle East Operations Update: Current Service Status

Riyadh AirportCommercial Recovery Still Limited

Riyadh has resumed limited commercial operations, but the recovery remains dependent on GACA permissions and the return of foreign airlines. The key watchpoint is whether carriers resume services on their currently published November timelines and whether the existing terminal and movement restrictions are relaxed. Until then, Riyadh should remain a limited rather than fully plannable gateway.

Saudi–Iran DialogueDe-escalation Signal to Watch

The direct Saudi–Iran dialogue opened on 26 October represents the most credible diplomatic pathway towards reducing Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia. However, continued missile activity means no operational benefit should yet be assumed. The key signal will be whether talks translate into fewer launches towards Saudi airports, Yanbu and Petroline-linked infrastructure.

PetrolineThroughput and Infrastructure Resilience

Petroline remains the strongest recovery signal in the Saudi network, with the most recent confirmed throughput at approximately 5.8 million bpd. Attention now turns to whether flows remain stable and move towards the 7 million bpd maximum, and whether Saudi authorities confirm any damage to pumping stations or associated infrastructure following recent Houthi claims.

HormuzPolitical Window Narrowing

Iran continues to state that its seven-day proposal remains available, but the diplomatic window remains uncertain ahead of the US political calendar. Monitoring should focus on whether Washington responds with a counterproposal or shifts back towards military escalation, particularly given reports of potential further strikes.

Maritime SecurityNon-Tanker Risk Increasing

Recent incidents demonstrate that the Hormuz threat is no longer concentrated on tanker traffic. Any continued targeting of container ships or other commercial vessels could further weaken insurer confidence and widen carrier restrictions. Vessel incident frequency and any additional P&I withdrawals will therefore be critical indicators.

Energy MarketsBrent Above USD 105

Brent’s move above USD 105 reinforces the elevated cost environment across regional logistics. A sustained period at these levels would strengthen the case for maintaining existing fuel surcharge assumptions, while further movement towards recent peaks could trigger additional cost pressure. The fuel surcharge baseline should therefore remain under active review.

Red SeaYanbu and Petroline Exposure

The attempted strike towards Yanbu demonstrates that Saudi Red Sea export infrastructure remains exposed despite Petroline’s operational recovery. Any successful attack on Yanbu, pumping infrastructure or associated terminals would materially affect Saudi Arabia’s alternative export capacity and increase pressure on already constrained maritime corridors.

InsuranceRe-engagement Remains Distant

No major P&I club has re-engaged Gulf war-risk cover. Continued vessel attacks, elevated Brent prices and unresolved Hormuz security conditions remain significant barriers to insurer confidence. Formal P&I re-entry remains one of the clearest signals required before maritime contingency measures can be reconsidered.

Logistics OutlookRecovery Remains Uneven

Saudi infrastructure and limited aviation capacity are improving, but maritime security continues to deteriorate. Petroline recovery and Riyadh’s partial reopening are positive developments, yet neither offsets the continuing risks across Hormuz and the Red Sea. All contingency routing, continuity measures and war-risk safeguards should remain fully active.

Riyadh AirportReopening Versus Practical Capacity

Riyadh has reopened under a permission-based operating regime, but the key question is whether airline services return according to currently published timelines and whether GACA relaxes or tightens the current approval requirements. The airport is operational in principle, but commercial usability remains significantly restricted while major international carriers continue suspensions.

Saudi InfrastructureHouthi Targeting Risk

Attention remains focused on whether Houthi attacks extend beyond airports and reach Yanbu or Petroline infrastructure. The attempted strike towards Yanbu this period highlights the continued exposure of Saudi export logistics despite the Petroline recovery. Any successful strike on energy infrastructure would have immediate consequences for regional supply chains and export capacity.

Petroline RecoveryCapacity Ramp-Up Under Watch

The Petroline restart is now confirmed and remains the strongest recovery signal anywhere in the network. The next phase is determining whether throughput can be sustained near 5.8 million barrels per day and continue progressing toward the 7 million barrel per day maximum without disruption. Yanbu loading volumes and export performance remain key indicators.

US–Iran Diplomatic TrackPolitical Window Narrowing

Iran continues to state that its seven-day proposal remains available, while Washington has shown little appetite to engage before upcoming political milestones. Monitoring remains focused on whether any counterproposal emerges or whether the diplomatic track remains stalled. The absence of a functioning framework continues to weigh on maritime confidence and transit recovery.

Hormuz SecurityCommercial Confidence Still Absent

Transit activity remains well below normal levels despite periodic diplomatic initiatives. Recent attacks on both tanker and non‑tanker vessels demonstrate that commercial shipping remains exposed, regardless of official statements regarding Strait access. The next key indicator is whether vessel attacks continue and whether any meaningful recovery in transit volumes follows.

Energy MarketsBrent Testing Higher Range

Brent remains elevated around the USD 100+ range, reflecting concern over both Hormuz and Red Sea security. A sustained move above current levels would reinforce existing fuel surcharge assumptions and increase transport costs across all modes. Market reaction to any further escalation remains a critical watchpoint.

Insurance & War-Risk CoverNo Sign of Re‑Engagement

No P&I club has returned Gulf war‑risk cover, and insurer confidence remains extremely limited. The widening threat profile, including attacks on non‑tanker shipping, increases the likelihood that insurers remain cautious even if limited diplomatic progress occurs elsewhere.

Bab el‑Mandeb & YemenStrategic Control Unchanged

Attention remains focused on whether the Saudi-backed Yemeni offensive can sustain pressure around Mocha and Bab el‑Mandeb. Recent military cooperation announcements involving Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan are being monitored closely, although no direct operational effect has yet been observed. Red Sea routing remains highly constrained.

Logistics OutlookRecovery Uneven, Risk Elevated

The network continues to display two conflicting trends. Petroline recovery is real and measurable, while maritime security conditions continue to deteriorate. Hormuz traffic remains suppressed, Red Sea risks remain elevated, and insurer participation remains absent. All contingency routing, continuity measures and risk controls should therefore remain fully active.

Petroline RecoveryRestart Confirmed, Capacity Still Recovering

The East‑West Pipeline has now restarted, representing the first fully verified infrastructure recovery of the conflict. The key question is no longer whether the pipeline returns, but whether it reaches full operating capacity within the approximately six‑week recovery window currently anticipated. Yanbu export volumes and terminal stock levels remain the most important indicators to monitor during this process.

US–Iran Diplomatic TrackNo Replacement Framework

The June ceasefire framework has expired and no successor agreement has emerged. Attention now turns to whether Washington responds to Iran’s UN proposal with a counteroffer or continues its current posture through the US midterm election period. The absence of a functioning diplomatic framework remains a major obstacle to any broader maritime recovery.

Hormuz Transit RecoveryImprovement Under Pressure

Hormuz traffic has improved modestly from conflict lows but remains significantly below pre‑war norms. A key watchpoint is whether recent gains can be sustained now that Petroline is easing pressure on Saudi export logistics, or whether transit levels remain structurally constrained regardless of pipeline recovery. Any expansion of transit permissions beyond currently approved movements would be an important signal.

Bab el‑MandebTerritorial Control & Future Route Viability

Reports that Houthi forces control Perim Island and Yemen’s Red Sea coastline continue to raise concerns over the long‑term viability of Bab el‑Mandeb as a fallback corridor. Monitoring remains focused on whether Yemeni government forces can regain additional territory and whether control of strategic maritime approaches changes over the coming weeks.

Energy MarketsBrent Remains Elevated

Brent continues to trade in the high‑USD 90s to low‑USD 100s, reflecting ongoing concerns over both Gulf and Red Sea security. Market pricing remains sensitive to shipping disruption, sanctions risk and infrastructure outages. Any sustained move higher would reinforce current surcharge assumptions, while a prolonged stabilization period could support future review.

Hormuz SecurityCompeting Narratives Persist

Public disagreement between Washington and Tehran over control and access in the Strait continues. Both sides maintain competing operational claims regarding transit security and future routing arrangements. Monitoring remains focused on whether these claims translate into new military activity or further restrictions on commercial movements.

Port & Gateway NetworkJeddah Remains Under Pressure

Jeddah continues to operate as the primary GCC contingency gateway and remains under significant congestion pressure. While Petroline’s restart is positive for Saudi exports, it does not materially improve port performance in the short term. Network recovery remains dependent on sustained shipping flows through both Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Insurance & Commercial ConfidenceNo Re‑Engagement Yet

No major P&I club has returned Gulf war‑risk cover. Despite the positive pipeline development, insurer confidence remains limited by continued military activity, unresolved maritime disputes and elevated regional risk. Insurer re‑engagement remains one of the clearest indicators of genuine recovery.

Logistics OutlookInfrastructure Improves, Maritime Risk Remains

The network is no longer moving uniformly in one direction. Petroline’s restart represents real and independently verified progress, while Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb remain constrained by security, diplomatic and insurance challenges. CWW therefore continues to maintain Tension Critical, with all contingency routing, continuity measures and risk controls remaining fully in force.

Petroline RestartConfirmation Still Outstanding

The most immediate operational watchpoint remains the East‑West Pipeline (Petroline). Despite repeated indications from US officials that capacity restoration was imminent, no confirmed restart statement has yet been issued by either Saudi Aramco or the Saudi Ministry of Energy. The key question is whether operations resume within the timelines previously suggested or whether recovery extends further into Q4.

Iraq InvestigationPotential Repair Bottleneck

Attention remains focused on Iraq’s investigation into militia activity in Maysan Province, where the drones linked to the pipeline attack reportedly originated. Any delay in access for repair and certification teams could extend the Petroline outage and further complicate Saudi export recovery. Resolution of this issue remains critical to restoring confidence in alternative Gulf export routes.

Bab el-MandebReported Houthi Gains Under Review

Reports that Houthi forces have captured both Mocha and Perim Island remain under close observation. Independent confirmation and assessment of the situation are critical because control of Perim Island would have significant implications for future Bab el‑Mandeb routing and regional maritime security planning. The impact on fallback routing options remains a key concern.

Hormuz TrafficSaudi Volumes Under Escort

Saudi Arabia is reportedly increasing use of Hormuz under US naval escort to offset capacity lost through Petroline. The key watchpoint is whether these movements continue without incident or draw a direct response from Iran. Any disruption to escorted flows would have immediate consequences for regional energy exports and commercial shipping confidence.

Energy MarketsBrent Approaching Critical Levels

Brent remains elevated in the USD 104–108/bbl range and is now approaching levels not seen since the conflict’s opening phase. A sustained hold near or above USD 100 would reinforce existing surcharge assumptions and potentially increase transport costs across all modes. Monitoring remains focused on market reaction to both the Petroline outage and continuing maritime disruption.

Hormuz GovernanceCompeting Claims Persist

Public disagreement between Washington and Tehran over control, access and future operations in the Strait continues. Both sides are making competing operational claims, and the risk remains that rhetoric could translate into additional military activity. The next phase of this dispute will be a critical indicator of whether conditions stabilize or deteriorate further.

Port & Maritime NetworkPressure Intensifying

Jeddah remains under extreme pressure as the primary GCC contingency gateway, while broader maritime recovery has stalled. The combination of an offline Petroline system, constrained Hormuz traffic and Red Sea disruption has increased pressure across all alternative routes. Congestion and network imbalance remain among the most immediate operational concerns.

Insurance & Commercial ConfidenceNo Improvement

No major P&I club has re‑engaged Gulf war‑risk cover, and insurers continue to treat both Hormuz and the Red Sea as elevated‑risk environments. The absence of insurer confidence remains one of the strongest indicators that operational recovery has not yet begun, regardless of diplomatic or political statements.

Logistics OutlookDual-Front Escalation Continues

The network is now facing sustained pressure from both Hormuz and the Red Sea simultaneously. While diplomatic engagement continues, operational indicators remain negative. CWW’s assessment remains Tension Critical, and all contingency routing, continuity measures and risk controls should remain fully active until verifiable improvements emerge.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Air Remains the Most Reliable Corridor

Air continues to provide the highest degree of operational stability despite escalating pressures across both Hormuz and the Red Sea. DXB, DWC and AUH remain operational, while Emirates, Etihad and flydubai continue scheduled services. Doha remains in Open status, although Jeddah, Riyadh and Kuwait continue to operate under flight‑specific constraints. Abha remains closed with no confirmed reopening timeline during this reporting period. Air freight should remain the preferred option for all time‑sensitive cargo, with flight acceptance confirmed prior to booking.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Contingency Routing Fully Maintained

Both of Saudi Arabia’s primary bypass routes remain under pressure. Petroline remains offline more than a week after the attack, with no confirmed restart from either Saudi Aramco or the Saudi Ministry of Energy. At the same time, conditions in the Bab el‑Mandeb corridor have deteriorated following reports of Houthi control of Mocha and Perim Island, further reducing confidence in alternative routing options. Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased the use of Hormuz under US naval escort to offset lost pipeline capacity, highlighting the growing dependence on a Strait that remains heavily constrained. Jeddah continues to operate as the primary GCC contingency gateway under severe congestion. Cape routing remains the operational standard and should not be relaxed.

Weekly Outlook (14-21 September)Stable Operations, Continued Diversions

UAE–Saudi corridors remain fully operational and continue to absorb increasing redistribution volumes as maritime disruption pushes cargo inland. Additional caution remains warranted around southern Saudi Arabia and areas linked to the East‑West Pipeline corridor. The Kuwait–Iraq corridor remains restricted, with no material change in guidance during this reporting cycle. All Sila and Batha movements should continue to be pre‑coordinated, while Kuwait–Iraq movements should remain subject to senior routing review prior to execution.