January 2026 Global Freight Market Update

Global air cargo demand increased 5.5 percent year over year, supported by international CTK growth of 6.9 percent and strong performance in Africa and Asia Pacific. Cargo capacity rose 4.7 percent year over year, with load factors reaching 49.1 percent and jet fuel prices climbing 5.9 percent. Air cargo yields declined 2.9 percent year over year but increased 8.2 percent month over month, marking the strongest monthly improvement since late 2021.

Ocean freight rates are expected to soften slightly during 2026 due to structural constraints such as port congestion, mega-ship deployment, and infrastructure limitations. Ongoing instability in the Red Sea continued to disrupt key routes, prompting carriers to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and increase transit times. U.S. imports reached 2.2 million TEUs in December 2025, increasing 2 percent month over month, while China's share of U.S. imports decreased to 31.7 percent as sourcing patterns shifted.

Major shippers reported tender acceptance rates decreasing from 95 percent to approximately 80 percent due to carrier exits and dependence on higher-cost backup providers. December truckload rates increased 1 percent month over month and 2 percent year over year, while spot rates rose 11 percent year over year, with a 2026 pricing outlook between 0 and 3 percent. December shipments declined 8 percent year over year, and transportation capacity dropped 31 percent year over year.